As they look ahead to next year’s fight for control of Congress in the midterm elections, Republicans and Democrats are fighting across the country to revise congressional district lines that will shape future political battles.
Redistricting is typically done only once every decade after U.S. Census data are released.
Texas Republicans, at the urging of President Donald Trump, approved a new map in August that grouped Democratic voters in major urban and suburban areas and drew new borders around Democratic seats to include more Texans who voted for Trump last year.
In this Aug. 20, 2025, file photo, a representative looks at a congressional redistricting map during debate on a congressional redistricting plan in the House of Representatives at the Capitol in Austin, Texas.
Jay Janner/The Austin American-Statesman via Getty Images, FILE
It set off a fight capped by Tuesday’s ballot proposal in California, which would give Democrats a chance to catch up with new opportunities for recovery as both parties explore redrawing maps in states where they control the levers of power.
Republicans make progress with new maps
As of Monday, four states have finished redrawing their congressional maps: Texas, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio.
Ohio, unlike the others, had to redraw its congressional map because of state rules.. A commission approved a “compromise” map that favors Republicans but keeps districts competitive for Democrats.
Analysts believe Republicans will gain up to nine seats on these redrawn maps as state legislatures redraw five seats in Texas to favor Republicans, one each in North Carolina and Missouri, and two in Ohio.
Democrats put hope in California
But Democrats are reluctant to approve a new map in California that cancels out Texas.
California Governor Gavin Newsom speaks about the Voter Tampering Response Act at a press conference at the Japanese American National Museum Democracy Center on August 14, 2025 in Los Angeles.
Mario Tama/Getty Images, FILE
Voters there are heading to the polls to vote on Proposition 50, which would adopt a new congressional map that redraws five districts to be more Democratic-leaning. Supporters of the initiative (and the ballot text itself) say it will counteract the way Texas redrawn its map.
Other states on the radar
Some other states are in the process of redrawing maps.
Utah lawmakers recently approved a new map after a court ruled against the current one; It is currently under legal review. Democrats have been cautiously optimistic that one or two of the seats could become more competitive.
Indiana’s Republican-controlled state legislature will begin considering redistricting mid-decade in a special session, while Virginia’s Democratic-controlled legislature is taking steps to allow it to consider a new map.
Other Republican-leaning states, such as Florida, Nebraska, Louisiana and Kansas, and Democratic-leaning states, such as Maryland and Illinois, have mulled redrawing the maps.
How this changes the battle for the US House of Representatives
There are 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives. As of Monday, Republicans had 219 seats to Democrats’ 213, with three vacancies.
With all seats filled, Democrats would need to gain three seats to flip the House.
Although both parties were already considering seats they could gain or flip from the 2024 House elections, mid-decade redistricting means both parties have to rethink which seats remain competitive and whether redistricting narrows the battleground of competitive seats.
The United States Capitol rises above the US Capitol grounds, which are covered in fall leaves, weeks after the continued US government shutdown, in Washington, October 27, 2025.
Kylie Cooper/Reuters
For example, in the 2024 elections for the United States House of Representatives, 13 Democratic candidates won in districts that Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won, while three Republican candidates won in districts that Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris won. according to an analysis by the University of Virginia Policy Center.
Of those districts, four of them (Texas’ 28th and 34th, North Carolina’s 1st, and Ohio’s 9th) are Democratic-controlled districts won by Trump that the new maps have made more Republican-leaning.
That means at least four seats that both Republicans and Democrats would have a good chance of flipping have been redrawn to lean more Republican.
A Republican strategist working on U.S. House races told ABC News that Texas appears to offer Republicans a good opportunity to pick up seats, and that Republicans are optimistic about being able to pick up the newly redrawn seats in Missouri and North Carolina.
The National Republican Congressional Committee, the campaign arm of House Republicans, said in September that would add three Democratic-controlled districts in Texas to the group’s “target list.”
But Democrats are not giving up.
Will Van Nuys, deputy executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the campaign arm of House Democrats, told ABC News: “We are still very actively engaged with our leaders, whether it’s Henry Cueller, Vicente Gonzales in [Texas congressional districts] 28 and 34, whether it’s Don Davis at North Carolina or our offensive target at Texas-15, that’s the first piece,” he said.
“I think the second part, in terms of how it will impact the overall map this time next year, it’s a little premature to say because I think right now what we’re seeing is a big push toward the Democratic side.”
The Supreme Court could further alter the map
An incoming ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court could further complicate the battle map for the midterm elections, depending on when the ruling is issued.
People walk in front of the Supreme Court, which is being restored, weeks after the continued government shutdown in Washington, DC, October. 20, 2025.
Kylie Cooper/Reuters
the court is considering a case That could determine whether Louisiana and many other states will have to redraw their maps without regard to race. A decision is expected by the end of June 2026, when the court’s term ends.
Democrat-aligned groups have estimated that Republican-controlled legislatures could redraw at least 19 Democratic-held seats in southern states.
ABC News’ Devin Dwyer and Benjamin Siegel contributed to this report.
