Hurricane Melissa strengthened into a Category 4 storm as it moved northwest across the Caribbean Sea on Sunday, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
A hurricane warning, meaning hurricane conditions are expected, was in effect for Jamaica as of early Sunday, the NHC said. TO
A Hurricane Watch, meaning hurricane conditions are possible, was in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti and the southeastern regions of Cuba.
“Satellite imagery indicates that maximum sustained winds have increased rapidly to near 140 mph (220 kmph) with stronger gusts,” the NHC bulletin reported Sunday. “Rapid and continued intensification is expected through tonight, followed by fluctuations in intensity.”
Waves break on the coast ahead of Hurricane Melissa, in Port Royal, Jamaica, on October 25, 2025.
Gilbert Bellamy/Reuters
“Melissa is expected to be a major hurricane when it makes landfall in Jamaica on Monday night or Tuesday morning and in southeastern Cuba on Tuesday night,” the advisory said.
Melissa could progress to a Category 5 storm, with sustained winds of up to 160 mph, before making landfall. The hurricane could be the strongest to hit Jamaica in more than 35 years, since Category 4 Hurricane Gilbert hit the island in 1988.
The hurricane is expected to pass southeast Cuba on Tuesday night and the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, the NHC said.
The storm is forecast to bring between 15 and 30 inches of rain to parts of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through Wednesday. In some places up to 40 inches could fall, according to the bulletin. “Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are likely in parts of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica,” he said.
Eastern Cuba is expected to receive between 6 and 18 inches of rain, possibly also causing dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.
Dangerous storm surge, surf and rip currents are also forecast. The NHC warned that the southern coast of Jamaica would experience “life-threatening storm surge” from Monday night to Tuesday morning, with a maximum of between 9 and 13 feet above ground level.
Tropical Storm Melissa is seen over the Caribbean Sea on October 25, 2025.
NOAA
